The largest poll since the 2024 General Election, conducted by communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus, reveals a seismic shift in political allegiance across the region and nationally.
Worries about worsening personal finances over the next year appear to be underpinning voter sentiment and a surge in support for Reform UK. A historic, near three-way tie between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK is predicted at the next General Election.
Of the 11 parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire, three - Bassetlaw, Nottingham North and Kimberley and Sherwood Forest - are forecast to switch from Labour to Reform UK.
Across the East Midlands, the sudden transfer of support is widespread. According to the poll, Reform UK are on track to snatch 15 seats from Labour across the 32 constituencies in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire.
The Conservatives are also on course to lose out to Reform UK in the region, with three constituencies forecast to move in that direction.
According to the survey of 5,743 British adults, which is weighted by gender, age, social grade, past voting and demographic factors, Reform UK leads with 24% of the projected national vote share, just one percentage point ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, both at 23%.
In terms of seats, the Conservatives would win 178 (up from 121), Labour 174 (down from 412) and Reform UK 175, (a dramatic rise from only five seats).
Other parties also see significant changes, with the Lib Dems projected to hold 57 seats (down from 72), the SNP at 37 (up from nine), the Greens remaining at four seats, Plaid Cymru dropping to two seats (from four), and minor parties retaining five seats.
If a General Election were held tomorrow and these figures were replicated, the most likely outcome would point to a Conservative / Reform UK coalition.
Members of the public were also asked if they expected their personal finances to improve or worsen over the coming year.
Almost half of voters (49%) believe their personal finances will worsen over the coming year, while only 12% expect improvement, unveiling widespread financial pessimism across the electorate. An additional 15% are undecided, reflecting uncertainty about the economic landscape.
PLMR’s data has revealed major voter swings in areas with high financial pessimism, favouring Reform UK and Conservative gains. The Labour Government will likely need to spend the next four years injecting financial optimism into the electorate to stay in power.
PLMR Group, which has offices across the UK, will be polling the British public in collaboration with Electoral Calculus every quarter from now until the next 2029 General Election, providing real-time voting patterns across all UK constituencies.
Will Savage, Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said: “This early polling data confirms the view the Labour Government has so far struggled to make an impact on voters. The optimism of the summer appears to have dissipated, leaving space for an insurgent Reform.
“Of course, it’s early in the political cycle but May’s local elections represent the first electoral test for the Government. With planning and local growth high on the agenda, councillors across the region will be fighting hard to convince voters they are best placed to improve the places and services they rely on.”
Martin Baxter, Founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “Our survey shows an unprecedented three-way tie at the top of British politics. If there were a General Election tomorrow, any of the three parties could come out on top but would be unlikely to have an overall majority. This represents a massive change in public opinion since the general election just seven months ago.”